Transport

A new report by the Finnish Climate Change Panel examines the greenhouse gas emissions and economic impacts of emission reduction measures in road transport, as well as the health aspects of air pollution. The transport sector’s emissions development will play a key role in meeting the emission reduction target of the Finnish effort sharing sector. However, the planned policies of Prime Minister Petteri Orpo's government will make it difficult to meet this target. The Finnish Climate Change Panel's report sets out the measures needed to reduce emissions from road transport fast enough to meet climate targets. First comprehensive assessment of the government's transport measures Finland must reduce its emissions from the effort sharing sector by 50% from 2005 levels by 2030. Transport is the largest source of emissions in the effort sharing sector and therefore plays an important role in achieving the sector's emission reduction target. Around 90% of domestic transport emissions are from road transport. A new report by the Finnish Climate Change Panel provides analyses on projections in greenhouse gas emissions from road transport and the factors affecting them. The report examines the economic and emissions impacts of current policies and presents a combination of measures to meet climate targets. This is the first comprehensive assessment of the impacts of the current government's transport policies and their effects on emissions. "The report shows that the current government's policies will lead to higher transport emissions than previously projected. If implemented, the proposals will slow down electrification, which will increase transport costs in the future," says Professor Heikki Liimatainen, a member of the Finnish Climate Change Panel. [caption id="attachment_5372" align="alignleft" width="1280"] Figure 1: Development of carbon dioxide emissions from road transport based on government policies and when adhering to a package of measures outlined by the Finnish Climate Change Panel that would meet emissions targets.[/caption] No economic grounds for not reducing emissions from transport Road transport must do its part this decade in remaining within the effort sharing sector's emissions budget and in achieving the binding target for 2030. The most significant challenges in the development of emissions from road transport are related to the proposed changes to the blending mandate by the government. Adequate emission reductions can only be ensured by not lowering the levels of the blending mandate under current law and increasing the blending mandate by the amount of electricity charged at public charging points. "Sufficiently high levels of renewable fuels mixed in with fossil fuels together with the speeding up of electrification offer the only sure-fire way to reduce emissions from the road transport sector fast enough to meet the targets," says Professor Jyri Seppälä, chair of the Finnish Climate Change Panel. The Panel's proposed combination of measures would also lead to lower global emissions than in the case of a reduced blending mandate. This holds even though biofuels are not emission-free and many have a high potential for indirect land use emissions. "The more electricity is the energy-mix for road transport, the less need there is for renewable fuels that are limited in their sustainability in the blending mandate and thus less pressure there is for fuel prices to rise," Seppälä continues. The Panel's report stresses that vehicle emissions should be reduced primarily through electrification and low-carbon synthetic fuels, such as e-fuels and hydrogen, rather than through an increase in the overall amount of biofuels used, with the exception of biogas. "From the perspective of transport costs, rapid electrification can effectively offset the upward pressure on costs caused by the increase in costs from emissions trading and the blending mandate in road transport, and the benefits of low running costs of electric vehicles become more apparent in the long term," Liimatainen explains. The costs for households are almost the same for both the combination of measures to meet the targets, as outlined by the Finnish Climate Change Panel, and the combination of measures following the government's policies. However, striving to achieve the emission targets is cheaper in terms of overall transport costs, when the future costs of inaction are taken into account. The electrification of transport should be accelerated with consistent policies and communication. The electrification of road transport and the use of sustainable fuels requires the development of charging infrastructure. These together increase domestic investments and skills in exporting industries. These will have positive economic effects in terms of increased employment and Finland’s self-sufficiency. The Finnish Climate Change Panel proposes nine measures for road transport To ensure that road transport does its part in achieving the effort-sharing sector's emission reduction commitment by 2030, the Finnish Climate Change Panel proposes the following measures to the government: The blending mandate should be kept to the level it was at before the changes proposed by Prime Minister Orpo's government from 2025 onwards. Electricity from public charging points should be included in the blending mandate, but simultaneously the distribution mandate should be increased by the corresponding amount of energy from public charging points. – Otherwise the inclusion of electricity from public charging points in the blending mandate will not reduce emissions from the road transport sector – on the contrary, it will increase them, as the proportions of transport fuels from other low-carbon options will be reduced by the corresponding amount of energy. The reduction of the penalty for non-compliance with the blending mandate between 2025 and 2027 should be abandoned. – There is no certainty that the money from the penalty payments would be sufficient to compensate for the emission reductions lost from transport The introduction of a flexibility mechanism for the blending mandate would only be justified if the blending mandate were increased as described above. – The effectiveness of the flexibility mechanism in meeting effort-sharing sector objectives is uncertain. The amount of 100% biofuels sold to consumers should be removed from the remit of the blending mandate. – This would mean that they would act as additional emission reduction measures in road transport. Intermediate hydrogen should not be included in the blending mandate. However, if it is, the level of the blending mandate should be increased correspondingly to ensure. The development of electric charging infrastructure along main roads should be supported. The purchase of electric trucks should be subsidised. The use of public transport, walking and cycling should be strongly supported. The report: Tieliikenteen päästövähennystoimenpiteet ja niiden vaikutukset (Summary: Road transport emission reduction measures and their impacts)