MetsäSken2050 – Forest use scenarios and carbon sink development to 2050

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In Finland, scenario calculations have been used to set carbon sink targets for forests and support decision-making in the forest sector by estimating the carbon sink potential of forests, either through maintaining past levels of wood use and felling or by estimating the maximum sustainable logging level in terms of wood production. However, the scenario calculations lack an analysis of different options, including lower logging levels than in the past.

In the absence of such calculations, decision-makers do not have access to information on the impact of reduced logging on factors such as forest growth, the carbon sinks formed by the trees in an area and forest carbon sinks (trees + soil in an area). This study answers the question of how increasing and decreasing logging levels would affect forest growth and carbon sinks, and what the effects of decreasing logging would be on the Finnish economy.

The EU and Finland are preparing to set 2040 climate targets and plan the actions needed to achieve them. Sinks in the land use sector play an important role in previously set targets and in Finland’s own carbon neutrality target. The sector has a wealth of untapped emissions reduction potential and sink-enhancing opportunities. This project will provide a knowledge base to inform dialogue on forest carbon sinks by means such as providing an assessment of the impact of logging levels and the impact of reduced logging on forest growth and the national economy.