In progress

This page provides information on the Finnish Climate Change Panel’s ongoing projects as well as future reports and other publications.

KUILU – Assessment of climate policy: current situation and actions needed to achieve targets

The aim of this project is to provide a snapshot of how sufficient Finnish climate policy is in terms of meeting Finland’s climate targets and to create an understanding of the measures and means needed to meet the objectives of the Climate Change Act and EU obligations. The results of the project will be used for the selection, adequacy assessment, implementation and preparation of updates to climate plans. The work within the project will also provide an evidence base for preparing statements.

The aim of the project is to answer the following questions: What is the current situation in terms of implementation of climate plans – have the actions in the previous plans been initiated, what decisions have weakened or strengthened the emissions trends in different sectors? What will the main drivers of change in emissions and sinks in different sectors be in the near future, taking into account government policies, and how have the trends affecting emissions in various areas of society, as outlined earlier, changed in light of the latest information? What is the current emissions gap in relation to the targets, taking into account the changes and uncertainties referred to above? What are the most feasible measures for different sectors and how could they be implemented in time to close the emissions gap?

  • Project dates: June 2024 – October 2025
  • Panel member responsible: Professor and Chair Jyri Seppälä
  • Involved in the project: Members of the Finnish Climate Change Panel, the Finnish Environment Institute, Lappeenranta-Lahti University of Technology LUT, and Natural Resources Institute Finland

Further information: Analyst Sally Weaver

Monimetsä – Analysis of forest use in relation to safeguarding sinks and protecting biodiversity

The Panel’s previous studies have not examined the impacts of conserving biodiversity on the targeting of felling and the carbon sinks in managed forest land. At the provided level of logging, strict conservation will lead to pressure for felling being targeted in a smaller forest area than before, which may be assumed to reduce the carbon sink. On the other hand, the protected areas act as carbon sinks, which will reinforce the sink. The selection of conservation areas will also have an effect: If some of the areas for conservation are established on forest land where felling has been performed, the costs will be lowered and the young forest may offer a better starting point for climate change adaptation.

The project simultaneously looks at questions related to forest carbon sinks and the conservation of biodiversity. The project will provide answers to the question of how forest carbon sinks will develop under the strict conservation of old forests when the levels of felling are allowed to vary. At the same time, structural characteristics are used to analyse how the biodiversity of commercial forests will develop as the pressure for felling increases. A separate analysis looks at how the size of the carbon sink and the amount of logging can be regulated using the minimum diameter and age for final felling. The analysis also offers a starting point for examining other control methods concerning felling. The aim for the project is to compile together the modelling results that look at various changes in biodiversity and carbon sinks with a view to various background results from commercial forestry.

  • Project dates: 2023–2025
  • Panel member responsible: Professor Emeritus Markku Ollikainen (project started during the previous term)
  • Involved in the project: The University of Helsinki and the Finnish Nature Panel

More information: The Finnish Climate Change Panel’s Secretariat

EU2040 – Implementation options for the European Union’s 2040 climate architecture

During its current term, the Finnish Climate Change Panel will consult on the following: the EU’s 2040 climate target, the EU’s next NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) under the Paris Agreement, and the legislative framework required for their implementation between 2031 and 2040. The aim of the project is to provide information support for the climate policy architecture being consulted on in order to achieve the 2040 targets and climate neutrality.

The project involves examining the impacts of different implementation options for post-2030 EU climate policy architecture on Finland’s emissions, costs, public finances and chances of meeting national emissions targets. The project will also assess how Finland could best combine additional national measures with EU-level schemes to meet national targets and maximise the impact on EU emissions. The project will also explore the role of technological carbon sinks in EU climate policy.

From the architecture, about five or six potential scenarios will be selected, all of which are realistic yet as different as possible, covering the range of possible policy actions. The project will model emissions in the EU and Finland using a tailor-made emissions trading model, based on earlier work by the Finnish Climate Change Panel. The project will also include a broader assessment of the legal architecture for achieving the 2040 climate target. The assessment is, in terms of reviewing instrument options, a qualitative analysis of the alternatives available for developing the legal architecture that goes beyond just modelling focused on emissions trading.

  • Project dates: June 2024 – December 2025
  • Panel member responsible: Associate Professor Lassi Ahlvik
  • Involved in the project: VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, the University of Eastern Finland and the University of Helsinki

Further information: Analyst Marianne Leino

MetsäSken2050 – Forest use scenarios and carbon sink development to 2050

In Finland, scenario calculations have been used to set carbon sink targets for forests and support decision-making in the forest sector by estimating the carbon sink potential of forests, either through maintaining past levels of wood use and felling or by estimating the maximum sustainable logging level in terms of wood production. However, the scenario calculations lack an analysis of different options, including lower logging levels than in the past.

In the absence of such calculations, decision-makers do not have access to information on the impact of reduced logging on factors such as forest growth, the carbon sinks formed by the trees in an area and forest carbon sinks (trees + soil in an area). This study answers the question of how increasing and decreasing logging levels would affect forest growth and carbon sinks, and what the effects of decreasing logging would be on the Finnish economy.

The EU and Finland are preparing to set 2040 climate targets and plan the actions needed to achieve them. Sinks in the land use sector play an important role in previously set targets and in Finland’s own carbon neutrality target. The sector has a wealth of untapped emissions reduction potential and sink-enhancing opportunities. This project will provide a knowledge base to inform dialogue on forest carbon sinks by means such as providing an assessment of the impact of logging levels and the impact of reduced logging on forest growth and the national economy.

Further information: Analyst Maria Karttunen